Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the market anticipates that the China-US economic and trade talks will bring positive news; in terms of industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. For the I2509 contract, be cautious when chasing high prices. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it's advisable to buy call options opportunistically [7][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on July 25, the futures price of the main iron ore contract was 802.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 832 (+15) yuan/dry ton. - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 122000 tons week-on-week. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, with an increase of 122000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. - The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 371400 tons. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The molten iron output decreased by 210 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to the same period last year. - The port inventory increased by 14170 tons. As of July 25, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons week-on-week and a decrease of 14.5226 million tons year-on-year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons week-on-week. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from last week and an increase of 48.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, hitting the "pause button" on rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. Trump said he was abandoning the idea of firing Powell. Domestically, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that it should take the lead in resisting "involutionary" competition and strengthen restructuring and integration. The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. - Supply and demand aspect: The iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year-on-year decline widened; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. - Technical aspect: The iron ore I2509 contract is still in an upward channel, with the daily K-line moving average combination in a bullish arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that the upward momentum of DIFF and DEA has slowed down, and the red bars have shrunk. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro situation, the market expects positive news from the China-US economic and trade talks; in terms of the industry, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise, but the molten iron output remains at a high level, so there is still demand support. Be cautious when chasing high prices for the I2509 contract. Buying on dips can still be considered, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the I2509 contract rose and then pulled back. It performed weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 25th, the price difference was 30 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - This week, the iron ore warehouse receipts increased. On July 25, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3400 lots, a week-on-week increase of 400 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 25163 lots, an increase of 21618 lots compared to the previous week. - This week, the spot price increased. On July 25, the 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 832 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 25th, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. 3. Industry Situation - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased this period. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, an increase of 122000 tons; the iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a decrease of 6800 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 16.294 million tons, a decrease of 108900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, an increase of 13500 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 9.226 million tons, an increase of 102100 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 371400 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a decrease of 290900 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 13.892 million tons, an increase of 241300 tons. - The iron ore port inventory increased. This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 14170 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a decrease of 94300 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 63.0925 million tons, an increase of 88430 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 51.396 million tons, a decrease of 38630 tons; the trading ore inventory was 91.8357 million tons, a decrease of 9970 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 63060 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the inventory consumption ratio was 29.51 days, an increase of 0.22 days. - The available days of iron ore inventory for the sample steel mills increased this period. As of July 24, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for domestic large and medium-sized steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day. On July 24, the Baltic Dry Bulk Shipping Index BDI was 2258, a week-on-week increase of 206. - The iron ore import volume increased, and the mine capacity utilization rate was adjusted upward. According to customs data, in June 2025, China's iron ore and concentrate imports were 105.948 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68%; the average daily concentrate output was 406800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons; the inventory was 410000 tons, a decrease of 44500 tons. - The domestic iron ore concentrate output declined. In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. The iron concentrate output of 433 iron mine enterprises was 23.304 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 76200 tons, a decline of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decline of 8.0% [28][31][34][38][41]. 4. Downstream Situation - From January to June, the crude steel output decreased year-on-year. In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. In June, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 900000 tons, a decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 470000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11000 tons, a decline of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative imports were 3.023 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. - The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron output decreased. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, the same as last week and an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points compared to last year. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week and an increase of 2620 tons compared to last year [44][47]. 5. Options Market - In the past two days, the ore price has pulled back from a high level, but the anti-involution expectation will continue to benefit the black series. Therefore, there is still a possibility of a rebound after the iron ore adjustment. It is recommended to buy call options opportunistically [50].
铁矿石市场周报：港口库存继续增加，铁矿期价冲高回落-20250725
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 12:20