铝类市场周报：宏观预期VS淡季影响，铝类或将有所支撑-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The raw - material supply is sufficient, with the import volume of bauxite in China increasing and port inventories accumulating. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term and may converge in the long - term due to the "anti - involution" policy. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable as its production capacity approaches the upper limit. Overall, the alumina industry is expected to improve [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply is relatively stable as the production capacity is close to the upper limit, but the demand is weak due to the off - season. However, long - term consumption expectations are positive, and industrial inventories are slightly accumulating [6]. - Cast aluminum: The supply and demand are both weak. The supply is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is weak due to the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and pressure on prices [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) showed a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, rising 1.22% to 20,760 yuan/ton. Alumina also trended stronger, rising 9.42% to 3,428 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [6][8]. - Market Outlook: Alumina is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply, weak short - term demand, and positive long - term consumption expectations; cast aluminum has weak supply and demand and accumulating inventory [6][8]. - Strategy Recommendations: Trade the main contract of SHFE Aluminum lightly with an oscillatory strategy, and go short - term long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Price Changes: As of July 25, 2025, SHFE Aluminum closed at 20,775 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from July 18; LME Aluminum closed at 2,646 dollars/ton on July 24, up 2.2% from July 18. Alumina futures rose 9.47% to 3,446 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum futures rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton [11][15]. - Ratio and Spread Changes: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.86 on July 25, up 0.01 from July 18. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,125 yuan/ton on July 25, up 340 yuan/ton from July 18, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,490 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton [12][23]. - Spot Price Changes: On July 25, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang rose, with increases of 1.74%, 1.89%, and 1.89% respectively. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 0.5%. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price rose 0.19% to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 10 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [27][28][31]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 4.89%, SHFE inventory increased by 5.45%, and domestic social inventory increased by 7.19%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 17.84% on July 25, and LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.23% on July 24 [36]. - Raw Material Supply: In June 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year; from January to June, the import increased by 33.61% year - on - year. The nine - port inventory of bauxite increased by 188 tons [39]. - Production and Trade: In June 2025, the production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products increased year - on - year. The import and export of some products also changed, such as an increase in the import of electrolytic aluminum and a decrease in the export of some aluminum products [48][51][55]. - Downstream Markets: The real estate market declined slightly in June 2025, while infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [68][71]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Strategy Recommendation: Considering the expected slight oscillatory trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].