镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely Factors: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain showed a slight recovery, and the Shanghai nickel price was strong, hitting a recent high. Policy expectations were positive, and the trading expectation of anti - involution policy remained high [3]. - Negative Factors: The refined nickel inventory continued to increase, with the Shanghai nickel inventory reaching 25,277 tons and the global visible inventory slightly increasing. The downstream demand was weak, with the new energy battery orders decreasing by 10% month - on - month and the operating rate dropping to 48% [3]. - Trading Consultation Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and avoid unilateral operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel main contract, consecutive contracts 1 - 3, and LME nickel 3M increased week - on - week, with increases of 1.48%, 3.13%, 3.19%, 3.19%, and 3.25% respectively. The trading volume increased by 20.64%, and the open interest increased by 138.2%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1.91%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 147.62% [4]. - Stainless Steel Futures: The prices of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts 1 - 3 increased week - on - week, with increases of 0%, 1.65%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively. The trading volume decreased by 43.42%, the open interest decreased by 1.87%, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.24%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 31.88% [4]. - Nickel Spot: The prices of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged, while the prices of imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel decreased by 0.04% [4]. - Inventory Data: The domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons to 40,338 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,416 tons to 204,456 tons. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.1 to 982.7, and the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 to 33,233 [4][6]. 3.2 Market Trends - Nickel Market: The report presented the price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk [8]. - Stainless Steel Market: The report showed the price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - Production: The report showed the seasonal production of Chinese refined nickel and the total supply of primary nickel in China including imports [14]. - Inventory: The report presented the seasonal inventory of domestic social nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel [15]. 3.4 Upstream Nickel Ore - Price: The report showed the average price trend of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) [17]. - Inventory: The report presented the seasonal inventory of nickel ore in Chinese ports by port [17]. 3.5 Ferronickel - Price: The report showed the average price trends of Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) [19]. - Production: The report presented the seasonal production of Chinese ferronickel and Indonesian nickel pig iron [20][22]. 3.6 Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Price: The report showed the average price trend of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) [24][26]. - Profit: The report presented the seasonal profit margins of nickel beans producing nickel sulfate and Chinese externally - purchased nickel sulfate producing electrowon nickel [28]. - Production: The report showed the monthly production of Chinese nickel sulfate and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors [30]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - Profit: The report presented the seasonal profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils [31]. - Production: The report showed the seasonal production of stainless steel [32]. - Inventory: The report presented the seasonal inventory of stainless steel [34].