建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250728

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Egg 2508 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,578, opening price 3,544, highest price 3,554, lowest price 3,504, closing price 3,522, down 56 or -1.57%, with a trading volume of 18,974 and an open interest of 30,889 (down 4,416) [7] - Egg 2509 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,634, opening price 3,639, highest price 3,643, lowest price 3,622, closing price 3,628, down 6 or -0.17%, with a trading volume of 120,682 and an open interest of 239,719 (up 703) [7] - Egg 2510 contract: Previous settlement price was 3,397, opening price 3,400, highest price 3,414, lowest price 3,396, closing price 3,411, up 14 or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 41,51 and an open interest of 114,725 (up 204) [7] - National egg prices were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, also unchanged [7] Core View - Egg prices have continued to rise this week, officially entering the summer peak season since last week. The fundamentals this year are similar to those in 2017 and 2020, with high supply, low spot prices during the plum - rain season, and a high expected increase during the summer peak season. The increase slope is relatively high in high - supply years. The upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday, and there may be a phased adjustment. Based on historical data, the expected average maximum price in the production areas during the third - quarter peak season this year is 4.30 yuan/jin, and the minimum is 3.77 yuan/jin. For futures, the valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season, so a short - term bullish mindset is recommended, but long - term positions should be avoided as cold - stored eggs may impact the market after a sharp price increase [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [9] - In June, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, a decrease from 44.98 million in May and a slight increase compared with 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in June in the past 8 years. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10] - In the three weeks up to July 18, the national chicken culling volumes were 15.05 million, 16.27 million, and 17.14 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered since May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season, but the absolute value is still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 24, the average age of culled chickens was 506 days, one day later than last week and two days earlier than last month [10]