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橡胶策略周报:橡胶:短线操作-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:31

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated with the overall market this week, rising first and then falling, and it is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading [2][3][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - RU2509 opened at 14820, reached a high of 15665, a low of 14780, and closed at 15585, with a gain of +5.23%. NR2509 opened at 12665, reached a high of 13420, a low of 12595, and closed at 13320, with a gain of +5.09%. BR2509 opened at 11710, reached a high of 12525, a low of 11685, and closed at 12415, with a gain of +6.16%. The market rose first and then fell, following the overall market, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia intensified the bullish sentiment. The technical chart was volatile after breaking through the upper edge of the previous shock range [3] Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned whole latex with 9% tax was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheets in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2330 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 12200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 2102 tons to 210814 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 4620 tons to 182020 tons [5] Market Structure - The basis widened compared with last week, and the futures price increased more [6] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market rose first and then fell this week, following the overall market. The raw material prices in Thailand varied, with smoked sheets falling and cup rubber and latex rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises declined slightly, the inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged, and the inventory of semi - steel tires increased. Affected by the rise of other commodities, natural rubber continued to rise, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia intensified the bullish sentiment. However, the overall market tumbled on Friday night, indicating a typical capital - driven market. From the perspective of the natural rubber's own fundamentals, the basis for a direct upward price movement is not solid, and it is recommended to focus on intraday short - term trading [7][8]