大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250728

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion, but demand is weak. For PP, it has similar factors with LLDPE, including cost support and macro - policy push, while facing weak demand [4][6][7][8] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. Caixin PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, back above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7370 (+110), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 86, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7200 (+20), and the fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 21, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [8] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+110), the price of the 09 contract is 7456 (+71), the basis is - 86 (+39), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 56.3 tons, and the social inventory is 55.8 tons [9] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7200 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7221 (+40), the basis is - 21 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 12635 (0), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 58.1 tons, and the social inventory is 27.4 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. also had different changes. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]