大越期货螺卷早报-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rebar, considering the poor demand, low - level slightly decreasing inventory, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset. The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with both supply and demand weakening, continuous inventory reduction, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a high - level oscillation mindset as the market supply - demand situation weakens and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, traders' purchasing willingness is weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - Basis: Rebar spot price is 3430, and the basis is 74; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 3.7297 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; bullish [2]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Likely factors: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3]. - Negative factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role; neutral [6]. - Basis: Hot - rolled coil spot price is 3500, and the basis is - 7; neutral [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.6716 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; bullish [6]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [6]. - Main positions: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - Likely factors: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. - Negative factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8].