大越期货沪铜早报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - Inventory: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - Market trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - Main positions: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - Expectation: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely factors: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - Spot: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - Exchange Inventory: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - Bonded Area Inventory: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - Processing Fees: Processing fees are declining [17].