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大越期货铁矿石早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:49

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports has decreased this month, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,395.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, a high - level oscillation mindset is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Positive Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalog - Related Information - Iron ore port spot price: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Iron ore basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 824, with a basis of 21; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 825, with a basis of 23, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Iron ore import profit: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Iron ore shipment volume: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Iron ore port and steel mill inventories: Port inventories are 14,395.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - Iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Iron ore daily consumption: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Steel enterprise production situation: No specific content is provided in the given text. - Iron ore port daily transactions and steel mill daily hot metal: No specific content is provided in the given text.