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大越期货白糖周报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-28 01:49

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main sugar contract 09 continued to fluctuate above 5800. As the futures price slightly increased, the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [4]. - The modification of the cola formula is a long - term positive for sugar. Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 period. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 million tons, and USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons [4][7]. - By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. - Domestic sugar is about to be cleared from inventory. During the current peak consumption season, the market sales are good, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and near - term contracts are stronger than far - term contracts. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, currently at a discount of about 250. In the next month or so, the spot price may slightly decline, and the futures 09 may rise slightly to complete the basis regression. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 5800 - 6000 [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - Likely positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and relatively low short - term out - of - quota imports. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is also positive [4][5]. - Likely negative factors: Global sugar production is increasing, and there will be a surplus in the new season. The overseas sugar price is around 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - Global supply - demand situation: In the 25/26 period, the global sugar production is expected to reach 202 million tons (a record - high second), mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. The global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [34]. - Domestic supply - demand situation: By the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report