大越期货沪铜周报-20250728

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, with the main contract rising 1.27% to close at 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues disturbed copper prices, and global uncertainties remained high. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.27% to 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and US tariff factors affected copper prices, and domestic consumption entered the off - season. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons [4]. b. Fundamentals - PMI: No specific content provided. - Supply - Demand Balance: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [11][14]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons with a slight increase last week, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][15][19]. c. Market Structure - Processing Fees: Processing fees were at a low level [22]. - CFTC Position: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - Futures - Spot Price Difference: No specific content provided. - Import Profit: No specific content provided. - Warehouse Receipts: No specific content provided.