建信期货豆粕日报-20250728

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The US soybean futures contract on the external market is oscillating, with the main contract at 1025 cents. The fundamentals of the external market have not changed significantly recently. The growth of the new - season US soybeans is good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthening. The demand is also expected to improve, so the US soybeans may still oscillate in the bottom range [6]. - The domestic soybean meal dropped sharply today. The market price is expected to fall if the soybean import tariff returns to the previous level after the Sino - US talks next week. The short - term volatility of the futures price is expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the external US soybean futures contract oscillated. The new - season US soybeans have a good growth situation, with a current excellent - good rate of 68% and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought. The demand is expected to improve, and the US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently. The US soybean may oscillate in the bottom range [6]. - Domestic soybean meal dropped sharply today. The main reason for the previous rise was the non - opening of the new - season US soybean procurement window. With the upcoming Sino - US talks, the market expects the import tariff issue to be discussed, leading to a large - scale exit of long - position holders [6]. | Contract | Pre - settlement Price | Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Close Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3072 | 3060 | 3076 | 3051 | 3059 | - 13 | - 0.42% | 360196 | 1240402 | 20263 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3041 | 3029 | 3038 | 3013 | 3021 | - 20 | - 0.66% | 894109 | 1623603 | - 44552 | | Soybean Meal 2511 | 3079 | 3068 | 3076 | 3051 | 3057 | - 22 | - 0.71% | 103312 | 623526 | - 6906 | [6] 3.2 Industry News - USDA Export Sales Report Forecast: As of the week ending July 17, the net increase in US soybean export sales is expected to be between 350,000 - 850,000 tons. The net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be between 250,000 - 550,000 tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be between 0 - 20,000 tons [7]. - Anec Forecast: From July 20 to July 26, Brazil's soybean export volume was 2.8107 million tons (compared to 3.0876 million tons last week), soybean meal export volume was 0.5317 million tons (compared to 0.5662 million tons last week), and corn export volume was 1.5212 million tons (compared to 0.6277 million tons last week) [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [9]