大越期货燃料油早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the analysis of fuel oil shows a mixed view with some factors being positive and others negative [3][4] Report's Core View - The fuel oil market has a complex situation. On one hand, the market sentiment has improved, but sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential. On the other hand, the reduction in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the spot premium over futures are positive factors. The market was previously weak due to trade negotiation uncertainties, but with the US - EU trade agreement and the possible extension of the China - US tariff exemption period, the fuel oil may stabilize in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2880 range, and LU2510 in the 3530 - 3580 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily提示 - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors. The supply is sufficient, but the inventory has decreased. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short positions with a reduction in short positions. The market may stabilize in the short term due to trade - related news, and the prices of FU2509 and LU2510 are expected to operate within specific ranges [3] 2. 多空关注 - Likely to rise: There is an expected increase in summer power generation demand [4] - Likely to fall: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3. 基本面数据 - Fundamentals: Saudi Aramco's competitive selling in the spot market and sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 42 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 83 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels [3] - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short positions, and the short positions are decreasing [3] 4. 价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing a graph of high - low sulfur futures spreads [13] 5. 库存数据 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. On July 23, it was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]