建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250728

Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: July 28, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract 2509 of coke futures continued to strengthen oscillatingly, and the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures hit the daily limit in the afternoon. The coking coal 2509 contract reached a new high since December 19 last year. The closing price of J2509 was 1763 yuan/ton, up 2.38%, with a trading volume of 65,730 lots and a position of 37,395 lots, a decrease of 746 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.05 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2509 was 1259 yuan/ton, up 7.98%, with a trading volume of 2,189,213 lots and a position of 519,305 lots, an increase of 55,992 lots, and a capital inflow of 11.82 billion yuan [5] - The long - short comparison and deviation of the top 20 positions in black - series futures on July 25 are as follows: RB2510 had a long - short difference of 20,113 lots with a deviation of 1.58%; HC2510 had a long - short difference of - 13,013 lots with a deviation of - 1.18%; SS2509 had a long - short difference of - 71 lots with a deviation of - 0.09%; J2509 had a long - short difference of - 1,018 lots with a deviation of - 4.26%; JM2509 had a long - short difference of - 4,481 lots with a deviation of - 1.54%; I2509 had a long - short difference of - 766 lots with a deviation of - 0.22% [6] Group 3: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On July 25, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1320 yuan/ton, and that in Tangshan was 1250 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1305 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1449 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1400 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1250 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1220 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1380 yuan/ton, with no change [8] - On July 25, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract declined slightly after a dead - cross the previous day; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value turning down slightly, but the K and D values continuing to rise slightly. The daily MACD red bars of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts have been expanding for 5 consecutive trading days [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - On July 22, the National Energy Administration proposed to order coal mines with monthly raw coal production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity from January to June 2025 to stop production for rectification and impose penalties [10] - In terms of fundamentals, for coke, the coke output of independent coking plants has rebounded for 2 consecutive weeks from the new low since early April, and the coke output of steel mills has rebounded slightly from the low since late February. The coke inventories at ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks and reached a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in a loss for 10 consecutive weeks, and the second - round price increase of coke spot from July 21 to 24 was implemented, with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [10] - For coking coal, from January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have dropped significantly, with declines of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early February, the port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase of steel mill inventory, coking plants actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price generally increased by 100 - 230 yuan/ton compared with late June [11] - Checking coal mine production is beneficial to stabilizing coal supply and effectively governing the low - price disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation of the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a significant contraction in domestic supply. Coupled with the large decline in imports from May to June and the significant decline in coal washing plant inventory, the futures prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded and risen significantly recently. In the future, one should be vigilant against the risk of large fluctuations caused by the reversal of the market after the price further soars. It may be a better strategy for those who have made buy - hedging or investors to take profit in the target range or around the end of July [11] Group 5: Industry News - From July 23 to 24, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a seminar for local state - owned assets supervision and administration commission directors, requiring high - quality completion of the in - depth improvement action of state - owned enterprise reform, high - starting - point planning of the next - stage reform measures, and optimization of the allocation of state - owned capital [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to further clarify the identification standards of improper price behaviors [13] - The State Administration for Market Regulation exposed a number of typical cases of "involution - type" competition violations in the quality field and will continue to promote the rectification work [13] - In June, the domestic steel market declined oscillatingly, and in July, it showed a slight rebound under multiple factors [13] - Huaibei Mining implements a "yearly volume - locking, quarterly price - locking" pricing mechanism for coking coal [13] - In the first half of 2025, Xinjiang's raw coal output reached 2.79 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [13] - On July 24, Guizhou Province issued a work plan to establish and improve the carbon emission statistics, accounting, and dual - control system [13] - From July 24 to 25, 15 rivers in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. experienced floods exceeding the warning level [14] - Anglo American's iron ore output in the second quarter of 2025 was 15.936 million wet tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and its metallurgical coal output was 2.056 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51% [14] - Fortescue's iron ore output in the 2025 fiscal year was 239 million wet tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [14] - Mongolian Mining Corporation's raw coal output in the second quarter of 2025 was 3.4284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [14] - The IEA's Coal Mid - year Report shows that global coal demand is expected to remain basically unchanged in the next two years [14] - In June 2025, Mongolia's coal railway transportation volume was 1.0801 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.51% [15] - In June 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 54.5848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73% [15] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, coking plant and steel mill production and capacity utilization, iron water output, coke and coking coal inventories, and basis [16][18][22][28][29][30]