大越期货贵金属早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The approaching of a US-EU trade agreement has led to a rapid cooling of domestic risk appetite, causing gold and silver prices to decline. The optimistic expectation of the trade agreement and the high expectation of interest rate cuts have made the gold price fluctuate. The decline in silver price is more significant, and the downward pressure on silver price increases [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation. The gold price is still likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US-EU trade agreement is close to being reached, domestic risk appetite cools rapidly, and the gold price falls following the silver price. US stocks rise slightly, European stocks are mixed, US bond yields are mixed, the 10-year US bond yield drops 0.99 basis points to 4.388%, the US dollar index rises 0.19% to 97.67, and the offshore RMB depreciates against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US-EU trade agreement is close to being reached, domestic risk appetite cools rapidly, and the silver price drops significantly. US stocks rise slightly, European stocks are mixed, US bond yields are mixed, the 10-year US bond yield drops 0.99 basis points to 4.388%, the US dollar index rises 0.19% to 97.67, and the offshore RMB depreciates against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -4.15, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increases by 900 kilograms to 30258 kilograms; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreases [5]. - Silver: The basis is -27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreases by 1467 kilograms to 1187254 kilograms; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreases [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes, with the Director of the State Taxation Administration introducing the tax reform and development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and answering questions. - At 18:00, the UK's July CBI retail sales difference will be released. - At 22:30, the US July Dallas Fed business activity index will be released [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The approaching of the US-EU trade agreement, the cooling of domestic commodity sentiment, and the high expectation of interest rate cuts make the gold price fluctuate. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making the gold price difficult to fall [4][10]. - Silver: The domestic commodity sentiment cools significantly, and the silver price drops sharply. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil, and the silver price mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price [6][13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On July 25, 2025, the long position volume is 216,889, a decrease of 1,802 (-0.82%) compared with July 24; the short position volume is 66,199, an increase of 2,411 (3.78%); the net position is 150,690, a decrease of 4,213 (-2.72%) [31]. - Silver: On July 25, 2025, the long position volume is 448,932, a decrease of 4,094 (-0.90%) compared with July 24; the short position volume is 348,227, a decrease of 6,851 (-1.93%); the net position is 100,705, an increase of 2,757 (2.81%) [33].