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大越期货生猪期货早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:57
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also suppressed by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory shows an increasing trend, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. The expected price range of LH2509 is 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price oscillates weakly in the short term, and the futures follow a similar pattern [12]. - The short - term decline in pork demand after the May Day holiday and the decrease in both supply and demand lead to a weakly oscillating spot price, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The low - level pig - raising profit still exists in the short term, and the high slaughter enthusiasm of large pigs and the decrease in both supply and demand suppress the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future supply reduction and demand recovery [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited decline space of the domestic pig spot price [13]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory data: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - Price data: The national average spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 305 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [10].