大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79220 - 81820 [9]. - It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. The monthly lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,878.0487804878 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a 1.40% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate was 71,661 yuan/ton, a 4.33% daily increase, with a production profit of 183 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica was 77,138 yuan/ton, a 4.21% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,248 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the 09 contract rising 5.01%. The basis of different contracts also changed, with the 09 contract's basis decreasing by 24.31%. The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed various trends [14]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 4.33%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.31% [17]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased. The monthly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends, and the monthly battery loading volume of new energy vehicles increased [17].