工业硅期货早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased and remained sluggish. Cost support in Xinjiang weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton. Factors such as supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends are considered, with a complex balance of positive and negative factors [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase, while demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support is stable. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton. There are also mixed positive and negative factors in basis, inventory, and other aspects [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost increase support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand in downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy remained low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 9850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week. However, the production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend overall, and the overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [12]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon price data shows the changes in prices and price differences of different contracts and spot products, as well as the changes in inventory and production data of different regions and ports [18]. - Polysilicon price data shows the price changes of different products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the changes in production, inventory, and import - export data [20]. Other Data and Trends - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical trends of basis and price differences over the years [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical trends of inventory in different regions and ports [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical trends of production and capacity utilization in different regions [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical trends of costs such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices in different regions [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical trends of cost and profit in different sample regions [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the supply - demand balance data of different time periods [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon data shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [45][47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy data shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [53][57]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon data shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [63][66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends show the cost - profit trends of 210mm components [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity in the photovoltaic field [84].