Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is mainly in a range - bound pattern. For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020, and for soybean A2509, between 4160 and 4260. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic import volume [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The short - term outlook for soybean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern, with factors like the reduction of protein content in feed formulas and high imports of soybeans in July. The short - term outlook for soybeans is affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the increase in imported soybeans [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the US soybean market may fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Domestic imported soybean arrivals in July are high, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills continues to rise. The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and soybean meal may enter a short - term weak oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - growing weather [13]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: High domestic imported soybean arrivals in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2840, with a basis of - 195, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 99.84 tons, a 12.66% increase from last week and a 20.8% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 76, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 642.24 tons, a 2.32% decrease from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: Data from July 17 - 25 shows the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: Data from July 15 - 25 shows the changes in warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal [19]. - Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, yield, production, and inventory [40]. - Imported Soybean Arrivals: The monthly arrivals of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 are shown, with the peak arrival time postponed to June and an overall increase [43]. - Oil Mill Data: Soybean inventory in oil mills has slightly increased, and soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling has increased. Soybean crushing volume in oil mills has decreased from a high level, and soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [44][46][48]. - Pig - Farming Data: Pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen after rising, and piglet prices remain weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. Domestic pig - farming profits have recently declined [51][53][55][57].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-28 03:02