大越期货沥青期货早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Basis: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - Supply Side: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - Production: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - Operating Rate: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - Inventory: - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - Import and Export Situation: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - Demand Side: - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - Downstream Demand: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].