大越期货菜粕早报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2640 - 2700. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, low oil - mill operation rates, and low rapeseed meal inventory. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and the increase in imported rapeseed arrivals has limited impact on short - term inventory. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the extent of the positive impact. [9] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities. [11] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. [12] - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. [13] - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. [13] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance sheets: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, supply, consumption, etc. [25][26] - Price data: - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains oscillating. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the high - level discount narrows. [14][16][20] - Inventory data: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 228% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.06%. Imported rapeseed arrivals in July are lower than expected, oil - mill rapeseed inventory rebounds slightly, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low. [9][27][29] - Production data: Oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increases slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. [31][39] 3.5 Position Data - The main positions have changed from long to short, and funds are flowing out. [9]