大越期货甲醇早报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market presents a complex situation. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol's spot and futures prices. However, delayed imports this week and expected concentrated arrivals next week may lead to inventory accumulation, limiting price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer, but low factory inventories and raw material shortages in CTO plants in the northwest maintain a balanced supply - demand situation. The recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and trader sentiment. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - Fundamentals: Port market - coal reform supports prices, but potential inventory accumulation may limit increases; inland market - high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, yet low factory inventories and raw material shortages maintain balance. Policy factors have a positive impact on the futures market. Outlook is neutral. - Basis: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2530 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11 for the 09 contract, indicating spot premium over futures. Outlook is neutral. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports decreased by 0.89 tons to 58.71 tons, and the available circulating inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons. Outlook is bullish. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average. Outlook is bullish. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. Outlook is bearish. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen produced products on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest have a large raw material gap and are expected to continue external procurement [6]. - Bearish factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); expected concentrated vessel arrivals in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operating rate; certain profit margins in coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: In the spot market, prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change, with Jiangsu rising by 4.32% to 2488 yuan/ton, Fujian rising by 4.35% to 2520 yuan/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract rose by 6.51% to 2519 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - Price Spreads: The basis decreased from - 12 to - 31 yuan/ton; the import spread increased from - 71 to - 49 yuan/ton; the price spreads between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei also changed to varying degrees [8]. - Operating Rates: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 tons to 41.67 tons, while the inventory in South China ports increased by 2.04 tons to 17.04 tons [8]. - Production Profits: Coal - based production profit was 315 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton; natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; coke oven gas - based production profit was 474 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 334 yuan/ton [19]. - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [30]. - Downstream Production Profits and Loads: Formaldehyde production profit decreased to - 180 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.90% to 25.42%; dimethyl ether production profit decreased to 361 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.82% to 8.88%; acetic acid production profit decreased to - 118 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 1.94% to 82.42%; MTO production profit decreased to - 1262 yuan/ton, with a load increase of 0.15% to 79.84% [34][37][41][46]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many plants in regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including full - scale shutdowns, partial load reductions, and planned or unplanned maintenance. For example, in the Northwest, Ningxia Changyi (600,000 tons/year) has been shut down since early February; in North China, China Daying (1.2 million tons/year) was shut down from February 26 to March 23 [57]. - Overseas Plants: In Iran, some plants are in the process of resuming production or have low operating rates, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc. are generally operating normally, with some undergoing periodic maintenance [58]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and other regions are in normal operation, while some are shut down for maintenance or have low operating rates. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy shut down for maintenance on March 15, and Changzhou Fude has been shut down for maintenance since November 1, 2023 [59].