大越期货甲醇周报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic methanol market is expected to have a local upward trend, but the increase in some regions may be limited. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal boosts coking coal and coke futures, which may further support the spot and futures prices of methanol in ports. However, the concentrated arrival of imports next week may lead to inventory accumulation and limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and macro - external news. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer and demand. But with no inventory pressure on inland factories and continuous procurement demand from CTO factories in the northwest, the supply - demand balance remains stable. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling over - production in coal mines have pushed up the methanol futures market, which is positive for inland operators. The inland methanol market is expected to continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The short - term domestic methanol market has different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices may be affected by coal policies and import arrivals, while inland prices are influenced by the off - season, downstream profitability, and policies [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 2385 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2488 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In Hebei, the price rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - The futures price increased from 2365 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2519 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 6.51%. The basis showed fluctuations, with a weekly change of - 51 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased from 265 yuan/ton on July 18th to 315 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 50 - yuan increase. Natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. Coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 451 yuan/ton to 474 yuan/ton, a 334 - yuan increase [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a 3.81% decrease. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price increased from 270 dollars/ton on July 18th to 280 dollars/ton on July 25th, a 3.70% increase. CFR Southeast Asia price increased slightly from 330.5 dollars/ton to 333.5 dollars/ton, a 0.91% increase. The spread between them changed from - 60.5 dollars/ton to - 53.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased from 2388 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2470 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 3.44% increase. The import spread changed from - 3 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week, with a 0.00% change [26]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased from - 165 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 24.52% to 25.42%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 361 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.06% to 8.88%. Acetic acid production profit decreased from - 62 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 80.48% to 82.42% [27][29][35]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit decreased from - 932 yuan/ton on July 18th to - 1262 yuan/ton on July 25th. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week [39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 44.6 tons last week to 41.67 tons this week, a 2.93 - ton decrease. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 15 tons to 17.04 tons, a 2.04 - ton increase [43]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 8544 on July 18th to 10134 on July 25th, a 18.61% increase. Effective forecasts decreased from 1800 to 0, a 100.00% decrease [44]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's maintenance loss is 1950 tons, and Qinghai Zhonghao's is 9100 tons [47]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, such as ZPC, Kaveh, etc. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance, such as QAFAC [48]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - In the northwest, most olefin and methanol - olefin integrated devices are operating normally or have specific operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical is operating stably. In other regions, the operating conditions of olefin devices also vary [49].