宏观经济周报-20250728

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a short-term adjustment in the Chinese economy, with overall resilience in economic momentum[1] - The consumption index has slightly declined, likely due to the base effect from previous strong expansions, but overall resident demand remains stable[1] - The production and investment indices have both seen minor declines but are still close to the expansion zone, indicating overall stability in economic activities[1] Foreign Exchange Market - In the first half of 2025, the non-bank sector's cross-border receipts reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with the RMB accounting for over 50% of cross-border receipts[2] - The net inflow of enterprises and individuals was $127.3 billion, continuing the recovery trend from the second half of last year, reflecting active international economic exchanges[2] - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of 2025, with a settlement rate maintained at 60% and a decrease in the selling rate year-on-year[2] Global Economic Trends - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 55.2, marking the highest level since December 2024[5] - The Eurozone's composite PMI increased to 51 in July, with the services PMI at 51.2 and manufacturing PMI at 49.8, showing a mixed economic outlook[6] - The US Treasury Secretary projected tariff revenues could reach 1% of US GDP, with a potential total of $2.8 trillion over the next decade[7]