宏观经济深度研究：地缘的围墙，创新的阶梯

Economic Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, leading to increased geopolitical fragmentation since 1975[2] - Geopolitical fragmentation index shows that a one standard deviation negative shock can reduce global GDP by approximately -0.4%, peaking within one to two years[5] - Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more severely impacted by external shocks compared to developed regions[5] Sectoral and Regional Variations - Industries closely tied to global markets, such as manufacturing and finance, face the most significant disruptions due to geopolitical risks[5] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU region, affecting global economic dynamics[5] - In contrast, sectors like agriculture and real estate, which are more localized, experience relatively minor impacts[5] Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Higher exposure to external political risks correlates with increased innovation activities, such as patent filings and R&D spending[8] - Private sector initiatives drive innovation in response to geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the importance of market incentives[8] - Medium-innovation firms, which are sensitive to external risks, tend to increase R&D efforts more than both high-tech giants and low-innovation firms[8] Long-term Implications for Economic Growth - Strengthening domestic innovation capabilities can help mitigate risks associated with global supply chains and enhance resilience[8] - Countries that can achieve technological advancements and industry upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition[8]