原油成品油早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly. US EIA commercial inventories decreased, while diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, and those in the US and China increased. The cracking spread of European diesel strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong local refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened month-on-month, limiting the room for further boosting operations. The current peak season for crude oil demand, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near-term supply and demand of crude oil. However, the peak season factors have been largely realized, and the month spreads have recently started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non-OPEC production and near-term diesel inventories [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From July 21 - 25, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.87, BRENT by $0.74, and DUBAI by $0.12. The SC price increased by 4.00, and OMAN decreased by $0.69. Other related oil product prices also showed various changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Iran and three European countries agreed to restart nuclear negotiations as soon as possible. Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an EU agreement. OPEC clarified that the JMMC meeting on July 28 has no decision - making power on production levels. Venezuela's PDVSA is ready to resume joint - venture work under certain conditions. Trump is considering secondary sanctions on Russia, and Russian western port oil loading is expected to drop by 8% in August [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 33.7万桶/日, domestic production decreased by 10.2万桶, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 316.9万桶 (0.75%), and strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 20.0万桶 (0.05%). US crude product four - week average supply increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased by 0.26%, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased by 1.17%. Chinese refinery output of gasoline decreased and diesel increased, with gasoline inventory rising and diesel inventory falling. Both main and local refinery comprehensive profits decreased month - on - month [4][5].