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LPG早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-28 05:51

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PG futures market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Domestic chemical demand is rising, but weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG. There are changes in regional spreads, and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. [1] Summary by Related Catalog Price Data and Changes - Daily Changes: From 2025/07/23 to 2025/07/24, there were daily changes in various LPG - related prices. For example, South China LPG decreased by 90, East China LPG decreased by 30, and propane CFR South China increased by 3. The paper import profit decreased by 122, and the main basis decreased by 67. [1] - Weekly Changes: From 2025/07/24 to 2025/07/25, South China LPG decreased from 4590 to 4500, East China LPG decreased from 4443 to 4413. The paper import profit changed from 89 to - 33, and the basis weakened to 370 (-63). [1] Market Conditions - Futures Market: The PG futures market is weakening, and the monthly spread continues to decline. The 08 - 09 spread is - 10, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 431. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. [1] - Regional Spreads: PG - CP reaches 43 (+18), FEI - MB is 155 (-6), FEI - CP is 4.5 (+4.5). FEI propane discount continues to fall, and CP arrival discount fluctuates. FEI - MOPJ changes little, with the latest at - 47.5 (-3.75). [1] - Production Profits: FEI and CP - based PP production profits improve slightly. PDH profits improve, while MTBE export profits decline. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Warehouse receipt registration volume is 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. The arrival volume drops significantly. The commodity volume decreases by 0.53%. The factory inventory increases slightly. [1] - Demand: Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate rises significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. The alkylation operating rate increases, and the MTBE operating load rises. However, combustion demand is weak. [1]