农产品早报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the short term, the supply - demand gap exists before the new crop is launched, and the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support. In the long - term, the import profit may increase future imports, and the new - season supply increase may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - Starch: In the short term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material cost expectations are bearish for starch prices [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainty, and there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar puts pressure on the upper limit of the futures price [6]. - Cotton: The end - of - season inventory reduction drives up prices, but downstream demand is weak. The upward trend needs verification in the peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for the month - spread [8]. - Eggs: The spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [15]. - Apples: The new - season output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Keep an eye on the situation after bag - removal [18]. - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot price verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, and seasonal support exists [18]. 3. Summary by Product Corn and Starch - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions changed. The basis of corn changed from - 10 to - 1, and the processing profit of starch remained at - 62 yuan/ton [2]. - Market Analysis: Reserve corn auctions ease supply tension in the short term. In the long - term, import and new - season supply may affect prices. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory limiting price adjustment [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou remained at 6120 yuan/ton. The basis and import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 298 [6]. - Market Analysis: Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Imported sugar arrival in China puts pressure on the futures price [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70 yuan/ton. The import profit decreased by 182 yuan/ton, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 73 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Analysis: End - of - season inventory reduction drives up cotton prices, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, egg prices in some regions increased, and the basis increased. The prices of substitutes such as chickens and pigs also changed [14]. - Market Analysis: Seasonal factors drive up egg prices, but high cold - storage inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound [15]. Apples - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The basis for different contracts decreased [17][18]. - Market Analysis: The new - season output may not vary much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [18]. Pigs - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, pig prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis decreased by 70 [18]. - Market Analysis: Long - term supply pressure exists. Futures prices need spot price verification, and short - term supply is sufficient [18].