芳烃橡胶早报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it maintains a state of inventory accumulation, with the spot processing fee dropping again. PX still has a guarantee for its lower valuation limit, and one can focus on the phased opportunity of going long in a contango market when the price is low [2][14]. - For MEG, the short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the long - term has an inventory accumulation expectation under the restart of overseas plants and the increase of coal - based load, showing a wide - range oscillation. One should focus on the restart progress of satellite plants [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the inventory pressure is acceptable, but there is no obvious upward driving force. One should focus on the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [8]. - For natural rubber and 20 - gauge rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable with a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, the price of naphtha increased by 5, the price of PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, the PTA internal - market spot price increased by 80, and the PTA processing difference remained unchanged. The PTA balance load increased by 0.2, and the TA basis decreased by 5 [14]. - Near - term TA start - up remains stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis weakens under the active shipment of mainstream suppliers, with the spot processing fee dropping again [14]. MEG - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the MEG external - market price increased by 5, the MEG internal - market price increased by 52, the MEG coal - based profit increased by 39.68, and the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) increased by 50. There were several domestic plant restarts and load increases [8]. - Near - term domestic coal - based start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the long - term has an inventory accumulation expectation, showing a wide - range oscillation [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 55, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 30. The start - up increased slightly to 90.6%, sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [8]. - The demand side shows that the start - up of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished - product inventory accumulates, and the profit further decreases [8]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Gauge Rubber - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 35, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 340 [8]. - The national explicit inventory remains stable with a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased by 115, the price of benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 15, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 50 [11].