燃料油早报-20250728

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near-month spread declined and returned to the historical low for the same period, the EW continued to weaken and rebounded on Friday. The 380 September - October spread weakened to around $2, and the 380 basis continued to weaken to -$7.25/ton. The FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded and then fluctuated. [6] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread fluctuated downward, the September - October spread weakened to around $2.75, the LU domestic - foreign spread weakened, and the 09 domestic - foreign spread dropped to $0.7. [7] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased slightly, the floating storage decreased, the near - month spread was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month, and its imports also increased. The UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. [7] - The high - sulfur supply and demand is still in the peak season, the 380 crack spread fluctuated after a decline, and currently, the EW arbitrage window is theoretically open. The domestic - foreign spread repaired and then fluctuated. [7] - This week, the hi - 5 spread fluctuated after a slight decline. The domestic LU domestic - foreign spread decline was realized, and the FU - LU domestic - foreign valuation was partially realized. Attention should be paid to whether there is support for the 380 near - month contract. [7] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 422.21 | 418.59 | 422.47 | 427.93 | 418.40 | -9.53 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 469.91 | 464.51 | 462.79 | 468.25 | 464.12 | -4.13 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.66 | -1.61 | -0.90 | -1.25 | -2.01 | -0.76 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 695.90 | 683.83 | 680.79 | 678.48 | 684.86 | 6.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -225.99 | -219.32 | -218.00 | -210.23 | -220.74 | -10.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.76 | 24.83 | 24.64 | 23.87 | 25.32 | 1.45 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 47.70 | 45.92 | 40.32 | 40.32 | 45.72 | 5.40 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 411.16 | 408.54 | 405.10 | 406.59 | 410.89 | 4.30 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 425.21 | 423.78 | 423.10 | 419.28 | 423.97 | 4.69 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 493.65 | 494.54 | 492.19 | 493.11 | 495.32 | 2.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.15 | 90.87 | 89.54 | 90.17 | 90.17 | 0.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.42 | -3.46 | -3.88 | -4.19 | -3.97 | 0.22 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.46 | -177.90 | -170.41 | -174.15 | -171.94 | 2.21 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 404.97 | 401.08 | 398.16 | 400.30 | 403.34 | 3.04 | | FOB VLSFO | 497.55 | 498.63 | 496.58 | 496.85 | 499.89 | 3.04 | | 380 Basis | -6.11 | -6.05 | -6.25 | -7.25 | -6.25 | 1.00 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -4.2 | -2.1 | -4.9 | -4.5 | -3.9 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 9.8 | -1.7 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2886 | 2894 | 2876 | 2886 | 2921 | 35 | | FU 05 | 2828 | 2845 | 2833 | 2848 | 2872 | 24 | | FU 09 | 2924 | 2924 | 2879 | 2879 | 2915 | 36 | | FU 01 - 05 | 58 | 49 | 43 | 38 | 49 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | -96 | -79 | -46 | -31 | -43 | -12 | | FU 09 - 01 | 38 | 30 | 3 | -7 | -6 | 1 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/21 | 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/23 | 2025/07/24 | 2025/07/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3550 | 3525 | 3515 | 3546 | 3549 | 3 | | LU 05 | 3500 | 3470 | 3472 | 3466 | 3489 | 23 | | LU 09 | 3603 | 3584 | 3569 | 3591 | 3611 | 20 | | LU 01 - 05 | 50 | 55 | 43 | 80 | 60 | -20 | | LU 05 - 09 | -103 | -114 | -97 | -125 | -122 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | 53 | 59 | 54 | 45 | 62 | 17 | [6]