甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250728

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - For methanol, high imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long - position when the price is low [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profits are around - 100 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance will decrease and domestic linear production will increase. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [9]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina are accumulating inventory while the middle - stream is destocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [9]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory destocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre [9]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the daily change in动力煤期货 was 0,江苏现货 increased by 20,华南现货 by 32,鲁南折盘面 by 35,西北折盘面 by 12,进口利润 increased by 39,主力基差 decreased by 5, and盘面MTO profit remained unchanged [2]. - Market Situation: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also grown. It's in a bearish realization period, and attention should be paid to actual inventory accumulation. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction, but due to the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long - position when the price is low [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged,华北LL increased by 80,主力期货 increased by 71,基差 decreased by 30,两油库存 decreased by 2, and仓单 decreased by 6 [9]. - Market Situation: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profits are around - 100 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance will decrease and domestic linear production will increase. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [9]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased by 30,华东PP increased by 45,华北PP increased by 8,山东粉料 increased by 50,华东共聚 increased by 28,主力期货 increased by 40, and基差 decreased by 40 [9]. - Market Situation: Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina are accumulating inventory while the middle - stream is destocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [9]. PVC - Price Data: From July 21 - 25, 2025,山东烧碱 increased by 5,电石法 - 华东 increased by 70, and other prices remained unchanged [9]. - Market Situation: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventory destocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre [9].