瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, despite no significant immediate changes in production data. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. - The industrial silicon futures were at the daily limit down today, while the spot price has not yet loosened. It is expected that the spot price will decline slightly in the short - term. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is poor currently. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,068 lots, a decrease of 44,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 74,088 lots, an increase of 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 49,710 lots, a decrease of 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was - 45 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - blowing 553 silicon was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 1,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 65.11%, a decrease of 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Trump said that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates and would lower the interest rate. Trump also announced that tariffs would start on August 1st without any extension, and a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported copper. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week was complex. In the northwest Yili region, the fertilizer subsidy policy was stably implemented, and large - scale production enterprises maintained their existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan were actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong did not meet expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly relied on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate did not increase significantly [2].