瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff situation cooling down suppresses the market's risk - aversion tone, causing gold and silver prices to decline during the session. The framework trade agreement between the US and the EU on the 27th reduces concerns about global trade frictions and supports short - term market risk appetite [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a slight recovery of the spot gold price from a two - week low, mainly due to risk mitigation from the US - EU agreement and increased overseas buying demand. However, as market risk appetite improves, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset has decreased [2]. - Future potential driving factors include the Fed's policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is strengthened, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. If the subsequent PCE growth rate is significantly lower than expected, it may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 8900 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold's main contract closing price is 774.78 yuan/gram, down 2.54; Shanghai Silver's main contract closing price is 9212 yuan/kilogram, down 180 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 209,675 lots, down 2,176; those of Shanghai Silver are 398,421 lots, down 52,406 [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold's main contract are 156,633 lots, down 424; those of Shanghai Silver are 129,149 lots, down 3,391 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,208,269 kilograms, up 21,015 [2]. - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 770.19 yuan/gram, down 3.01; the silver spot price is 9146 yuan/kilogram, down 245 [2]. - The basis of Shanghai Gold's main contract is - 4.12 yuan/gram, down 0.48; that of Shanghai Silver is 1 yuan/kilogram, up 36 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.09 tons, up 2.29; silver ETF holdings are 15,207.82 tons, unchanged [2]. - Gold's CFTC non - commercial net positions are 213,115 contracts, up 10,147; silver's CTFC non - commercial net positions are 59,448 contracts, up 927 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 12.24%, up 0.06; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.76%, down 0.19 [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, down 0.03; that of at - the - money put options is 21.08%, down 0.03 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. Trump said the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods exported to the US. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment, and purchase $750 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the next few weeks [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said Trump's patience for Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict is running out [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6% [2].