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白糖产业日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 09:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the external sugar market has slowed down, lingering at a low level, weakening the downward pressure on domestic prices. The domestic demand is in the peak season, boosting the center of the white sugar futures price to rise slightly during stable operation. However, the increase in imports and the expectation of loose global supply will limit the upside potential of prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main white sugar futures contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the position of the main contract was 324,831 lots, a decrease of 18,873 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,150, a decrease of 492; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was 800 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,729 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,920 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,502 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,451 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 298 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 231 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for white sugar was 10.22%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 10.23%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the 20-day historical volatility was 4.6%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility was 6.95%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to the report of the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central-southern region declined in June. As of June in the 2025/26 crushing season, the sugar content index (ATR) of sugarcane decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, from 125.2 kg/ton to 121.4 kg/ton [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today [2]