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瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 09:22

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for red dates is in a seasonal off - peak, and the inventory of old fruits is high, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices. The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the production areas. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, with a decrease of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024. The reduction is less than that of the absolute low - yield year in 2023. The market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. The release of the implementation plan to promote agricultural product consumption by ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs boosts market confidence in the short term. The red date 2601 contract showed a short - term upward trend, and the market sentiment dominated the price fluctuations in the short term, while it will return to the fundamentals later. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,695 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 138,033 lots, a decrease of 73 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 2,505 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 8,740, and the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,455 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red dates in various regions are as follows: the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Hebei is 9.81 yuan/kg, the special - grade red date price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg, and the first - grade red date price in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares compared to the previous period [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg compared to the previous period, and the cumulative export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 20 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你 is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons compared to the previous period, and the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 28, there was light rain in Aksu, with temperatures ranging from 19 - 28°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management. According to on - the - spot research in mid - July, the mainstream per - mu yield is 700 - 800 kg. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the third and fourth batches of flowers and the physiological fruit drop. The red date 2601 contract rose 2.2% on Monday [2]