Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. Previously, steel prices rose due to positive expectations, but after the double - coke limit - down, market optimism faded and spot trading weakened. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; the position volume is 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 5,938 lots, down 14,774 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 84,440 tons, down 3,587 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 149 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,518 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract is 182 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,315 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.9038 million tons, up 51,700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 498,000 tons, down 56,200 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4 million tons, up 9,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0692 million tons, up 33,000 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1196 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 46.47%, up 0.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6567 million tons, down 74,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7297 million tons, up 28,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6行业消息 - On July 27th, coke prices in markets such as Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, and Linyi are planned to increase. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will increase by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry - quenched coke will increase by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged coke will increase by 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 28th [2]. - According to Mysteel research, last week, steel mill overhauls decreased compared with the previous week, and the scale of resumption of production expanded. This week's output may increase, and it is estimated that the output affected by production line overhauls this week is 133,800 tons [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 09:22