苹果产业日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, the large listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price movement and range. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and pay attention to controlling risks [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8052 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 127,261 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 32,430 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,721 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 981 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 4 yuan/jin. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.75 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 70.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, with a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, with a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 6.8 vehicles, with an increase of 1 vehicle, and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 14.6 vehicles, with a decrease of 2 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.15%, and that of at - the - money put options is 17.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.79% [2] Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western producing areas basically ended with little remaining stock. In the Shandong producing area, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly, most of them selected suitable sources for procurement, and fruit farmers sold at the market price. The supply of early - maturing apples is still limited, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is fair, with relatively stable prices. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.64% on Monday. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of main apple - producing areas in China was 70.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.15 million tons. The inventory removal speed was similar to that of last week and basically the same as that of last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong producing area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% from last week, and the inventory removal speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi producing area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% from last week, and the inventory removal was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu producing area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% from last week, and the inventory removal was sporadic [2]