瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic caustic soda plants are still in the recovery phase, with few recent shutdown plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The price of downstream alumina has rebounded, driving an increase in the enthusiasm of enterprises for复产, and there is still some room for the alumina operating rate to rise. The off - season for non - aluminum downstream industries continues, with weak demand. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to the support around 2470 and the pressure around 2700 on the daily K - line of SH2509 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2593 yuan/ton, and the futures trading volume decreased by 277186 hands to 752433 hands. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May decreased by 72 yuan/ton and 77 yuan/ton to 2629 yuan/ton and 2689 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region remained unchanged at 2593.75 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of steam coal remained unchanged at 638 yuan/ton [1]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton [1]. Downstream Situation - The spot prices of viscose staple fiber and alumina remained unchanged at 12940 yuan/ton and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. As of July 24th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.38% and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [1]. Viewpoint Summary - The capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants is expected to continue to rise. The expected new production capacity from July to August is relatively high, and medium - to - long - term supply pressure may increase. The alumina operating rate has room to rise, while non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda in the spot market is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [1].