大越期货贵金属周报-20250728

Report Title Precious Metals Weekly Report (July 21 - July 25) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic commodities surged, and precious metal prices rose first and then fell. Silver remained stronger than gold. The prices of precious metals were supported by the domestic commodity boom despite trade agreement news from Japan and the EU. The expectation of a Fed rate cut continued to rise, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices had strong capital support [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - Precious Metal Price Movements: - Shanghai Gold 2510 closed up 0.26%, reaching a maximum of 794 yuan/gram; COMEX Gold closed down 0.2%, reaching a maximum of 3451.7 dollars/ounce. - Shanghai Silver 2510 closed up 2.4%, reaching a new historical high of 9526 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Silver closed up 0.06%, reaching a maximum of 39.91 dollars/ounce, the highest since September 2011. - SGE Gold T + D closed up 0.29%, and SGE Silver T + D closed up 2.21%. - London Gold Spot closed down 0.4%, and London Silver Spot closed down 0.03%. - The US Dollar Index closed down 0.8%, and the US Dollar against Offshore RMB closed down 0.18% [4][12]. - Trade Agreement News: - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff rate, and Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU would increase investment in the US by 600 billion dollars, buy US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products [12][13]. - Economic Data: - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. - The Eurozone July PMI rose to 51, a new high in nearly a year. Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, while France's economy continued to shrink due to political deadlock. - US June existing - home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, while housing prices reached a new historical high [14][15]. 2. Weekly Review - Market Focus: This week, the China - US trade negotiation and the August 1 tariff "deadline" were the focuses, and the Fed's interest rate decision was highly anticipated. The US would also release key data such as non - farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE. The Bank of Japan would announce the target interest rate. China would hold a Politburo meeting at the end of July and release the official manufacturing PMI data [12]. - Position Analysis: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased slightly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced, and the fluctuation was very limited. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to increase, with both long and short positions increasing significantly. - CFTC net positions fluctuated slightly, with both long and short positions of gold and silver increasing, but the increase in short positions was limited [12]. 3. Fundamental Data - ETF Positions: SPDR Gold ETF positions continued to increase, and silver ETF positions increased in a fluctuating manner [31][33]. - Inventory Data: - COMEX Gold inventory increased slightly, and COMEX Silver inventory decreased slightly. - Shanghai Gold inventory data was presented, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased in a fluctuating manner [36][38]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions: This week, long positions were 216,889, an increase of 5.34% from last week; short positions were 66,199, an increase of 5.86%; the net position was 150,690, an increase of 5.12% [23]. - Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions: This week, long positions were 448,932, a decrease of 8.03% from last week; short positions were 348,227, a decrease of 7.89%; the net position was 100,705, a decrease of 8.53% [26]. - CFTC Positions: As of July 22, the net long position of CFTC gold increased significantly, with more long positions added and short positions reduced; the net long position of CFTC silver increased slightly, also with more long positions added and short positions reduced [27]. 5. Summary - Tariff agreements had no progress, the expectation of a rate cut increased significantly, and there were still supports for precious metal prices. Affected by the domestic industrial clearance policy, precious metal prices might be supported by non - ferrous metal prices, and silver prices were still relatively strong [12].