Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The recent steel price increase is mainly driven by coal policies, with little change in the steel supply - demand situation. Later, focus on tariff interference in August and the impact of coking coal fluctuations on steel. After the weekend decline, the steel price may fluctuate downward on Monday, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and expect the steel price to enter an oscillatory pattern [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3380 to 3430 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The prices of steel billets and slab billets have changed, and the costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions have also fluctuated. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 7 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 9 yuan [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1% to 242.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 867.0 tons, the rebar output increased by 1.4% to 212.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 1.1% to 317.5 tons [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 1336.5 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.9% to 538.6 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 345.2 tons [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 5.2% to 11.7 tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 868.1 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% to 216.6 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% to 315.2 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. In the future, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and switch to short - selling operations [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has also fluctuated significantly. For example, the basis of PB fines in the 09 contract decreased by 63.4% [4]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.9% to 2371.2 tons, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 4.1% to 3109.1 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 tons [4]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.4% to 315.2 tons, the national monthly pig iron output increased by 2.1% to 7411.4 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 0.6% to 8654.5 tons [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8885.2 tons, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The coking coal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, and the spot price increased. There are still expectations of multiple rounds of price increases in the future. For coke, the spot price is in an upward trend, and the futures price premium provides hedging opportunities. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations at high prices, take profit on long positions, and carry out positive spread arbitrage operations for both coking coal and coke, while being vigilant about exchange intervention [6]. Summary by Directory - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts, such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and the 09 contract of coke, have increased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 4.3% to 1246 yuan/ton [6]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal products, including Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt, have also increased. For instance, the price of Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal increased by 4.5% to 1150 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6% to 64.6 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1% to 47.2 tons. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, and the demand for coke is affected by the operation of steel mills [6]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.8% to 918.2 tons, the coking plant's coke inventory decreased by 8.5% to 80.1 tons, and the steel mill's coke inventory increased slightly. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the coking coal inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased [6]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 10.2% to - 5.5 tons [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250728
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-28 13:11