Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices are affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances and continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, and pay attention to the increase in raw materials after the weather in the main producing areas improves [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: On July 25, the price of Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 350 yuan/ton to 15350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33%. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 10 to - 235, with a growth rate of 4.08%. Other prices also had different degrees of changes [2]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 to - 765, with a growth rate of 3.77%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 to - 125, with a decrease rate of 4.17% [2]. - Fundamental Data: In May, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, an increase of 166.5 thousand tons compared with the previous month, with a growth rate of 157.52%. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.12 to 75.87%, and the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 to 65.02% [2]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory increased by 4006 to 636383, with a growth rate of 0.63%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 707 to 37398, with a growth rate of 1.93% [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the polysilicon futures price was strong. After the price increased significantly, the arbitrage window opened, and the hedging enthusiasm of upstream enterprises increased. It is expected that the price will return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. If the volatility of options falls, consider buying put options. Pay attention to the smoothness of the price downward transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation in the long - term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: On July 25, the average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 3240 to - 4525, with a growth rate of 41.73% [4]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The PS2506 contract decreased by 2740 to 51025, with a decrease rate of 5.10%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 50 to - 75, with a decrease rate of 200.00% [4]. - Fundamental Data: The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.25 to 2.55 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.87%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.10% [4]. - Inventory Change: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 to 24.3 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 to 17.87 million pieces, with a growth rate of 11.55% [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon futures price was affected by coking coal and polysilicon futures and once hit the daily limit, then fluctuated at a high level. The production increased slightly, but the demand is expected to decline by about 3%. Pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts after the arbitrage window opens. If large - scale enterprises resume production, polysilicon prices fall, or warehouse receipts continue to increase, short positions can be considered [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: On July 25, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 10100 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 35 to 375, with a decrease rate of 8.54% [5]. - Monthly Spread: The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 15 to - 45, with a growth rate of 25.00%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 to 65, with a growth rate of 18.18% [5]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 to 30.08 million tons, with a decrease rate of 12.10%. The national starting rate decreased by 6.57 to 51.23%, with a decrease rate of 11.37% [5]. - Inventory Change: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.25 to 12.61 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.02%. The social inventory decreased by 1.2 to 53.5 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.19% [5]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda Ash: In the short - term, the soda ash futures price fluctuates sharply under the influence of policies and news, deviating from its own fundamental logic. The supply is in an obvious surplus pattern, and the inventory is under pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. - Glass: The glass futures price is boosted by policies and news. The spot market is strong, but the current fundamentals are in the summer rainy season off - peak, and the rigid demand is under pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: On July 25, the North China glass quotation increased by 30 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.46%. The glass 2509 contract increased by 55 to 1362, with a growth rate of 4.21% [6]. - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: The East China soda ash quotation increased by 70 to 1350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 5.47%. The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 32 to 1440, with a growth rate of 2.11% [6]. - Supply: The soda ash starting rate decreased by 1.28% to 83.02%. The weekly soda ash production decreased by 0.9 to 72.38 million tons, with a decrease rate of 1.28% [6]. - Inventory: The glass factory warehouse inventory decreased by 304.9 to 61890,000 weight boxes, with a decrease rate of 4.70%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.1 to 186.46 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.15% [6]. Group 5: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the log futures price fluctuated. Recently, black building materials commodities have rebounded, but the log futures price fluctuates repeatedly due to weak demand. The expected increase in arrivals this week and the inventory accumulation last week put pressure on the spot market. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - Futures and Spot Prices: On July 25, the log 2511 contract increased by 3.5 to 838, with a growth rate of 0.42%. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.02 to 7.162, with a growth rate of 0%. The import cost calculated at a 15% over - length was 802.73 [7]. - Supply: In June, the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, with a decrease rate of 8.62%. The national log inventory increased by 7 to 329 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.17% [7]. - Demand: The log daily average outbound volume increased by 0.36 to 6.24 million cubic meters [7].
《特殊商品》日报-20250728
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-28 13:10