《有色》日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Copper - The market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut expectations in the US, but the timing of the cut is uncertain. In China, the spread of anti - involution sentiment is important for copper, and the policy's impact on smelting capacity clearance needs attention. The market's positive macro - sentiment boosts copper prices, but short - term sentiment ebbing risks should be noted. - On the fundamental side, copper demand weakens significantly as prices rebound, and combined with the traditional off - season effect, there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. However, China's macro - policies and low inventories support the copper price. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "looser supply expectations and weaker actual demand", and copper pricing returns to macro trading. The short - term positive anti - involution macro - sentiment boosts prices, but a callback risk due to sentiment ebbing should be watched. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the anti - involution policy brings expectations of capacity elimination and the risk of a squeeze due to a sharp reduction in warehouse receipts, which is beneficial to prices. But the rumor of large alumina plants'复产 also suppresses prices, and the market shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, the tight supply of bauxite in Guinea and low alumina futures warehouse receipts support price rebounds, and the basis weakens, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window. In the medium term, due to limited backward capacity, the impact of anti - involution on the alumina industry is mainly emotional. The restored and newly - added production capacity will increase spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400, and risks such as Guinea's policy changes and anti - involution policy follow - up should be noted. - For aluminum, the domestic consumption - stimulating atmosphere and anti - involution sentiment support aluminum prices, but the weakened Fed interest - rate cut expectations and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio leads to a bottom - probing trend in inventories. On the demand side, construction and real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports decline, and orders weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, with only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remaining resilient. In general, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, and the reference range for the main contract next week is 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum alloy market remained in a situation of weak supply and demand last week, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. Market transactions were mainly based on the strategy of spot - futures traders stocking up and hedging on the Shanghai Aluminum Futures to narrow the aluminum - alloy price spread, and terminal transactions were sluggish. The social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, and some areas were close to full capacity. On the supply side, low - priced overseas goods continued to impact the market; on the demand side, it was continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, with weak orders in the terminal automotive industry. Downstream die - casting enterprises generally had a pessimistic view of the future market, maintained a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy, and had a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in light market transactions. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to suppress price increases. It is expected that the market will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,400 - 20,200 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton. However, the global zinc ore production in May and China's domestic zinc ore production growth in June were both lower than expected. The improvement in refined zinc supply lags behind that of the ore end, but with the TC in an upward cycle and the continuous repair of smelting profits, smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter operating rate is at a high level in recent years, stronger than the seasonal norm. The expectation of loose refined zinc supply still exists. - On the demand side, the strengthening of the zinc price on the futures market significantly suppresses demand, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. Among the three primary processing industries, only the galvanizing sector performs well due to the black - series anti - involution policy, while the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide industries enter the seasonal off - season, and demand weakens. The center of the spot premium continues to decline, and the low absolute inventory level provides price support, but domestic social inventories may enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. In the short term, under the background of China's anti - involution macro - policy, the positive macro - sentiment leads to a rebound in zinc prices, but the impact of the zinc consumption off - season and the expectation of loose supply are insufficient to support continuous price increases. A callback risk after the sentiment ebbs should be noted, and low inventories provide price support. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual tin ore supply remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue to be at a low level. In June, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, with shipments expected to start around the end of August. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, photovoltaic tin - strip orders in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. In South China, the electronic consumption entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises declined significantly. Considering the subsequent impact of US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of China's consumption - stimulating policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the continuous decrease in LME tin inventories, the tin price is strongly oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment and the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [14]. Nickel - Last week, the Shanghai nickel futures market showed a strong - side oscillatory trend, and the central price of the main contract increased. The macro - sentiment provided a boost, while the fundamentals changed little. The Fed's attitude is currently wait - and - see, and the first interest - rate cut is expected to be in September. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline. In China, the anti - involution atmosphere is strong, which boosts commodities. - At the industrial level, the spot price increased, and the spot trading volume of refined nickel was average last week. The premiums of various brands of resources remained stable. Recently, the nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is still +24. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to production cuts at some smelters in Indonesian industrial parks, and the supply is currently relatively loose. The nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement, and terminal demand is relatively weak. The nickel sulfate price is relatively stable, but the downstream ternary materials industry has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain at a high level, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories remain stable. Overall, the positive market sentiment boosts the commodity sector, the nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market showed an overall strong - side oscillatory trend, and the spot price increased slightly. The macro - sentiment boosted the market, and spot - end agents and traders mostly maintained stable prices for sales, but market transactions were still average. In the macro - aspect, the US inflation expectation is currently mild, and overseas tariff risks still exist. The Fed's attitude is wait - and - see, while the domestic atmosphere is positive, with a series of favorable policies introduced, and the government's continuous increase in infrastructure investment boosts market confidence. - The nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is +24, and the supply is currently relatively loose. Driven by the improved sentiment, the nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. Stainless - steel mill maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, but the actual production reduction of steel mills is less than expected, and normal production is maintained during the postponed period, so the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Terminal demand is relatively weak. Due to the plum - rain season and continuous high - temperature weather, the recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Traders have more room for price negotiation but still struggle to increase trading volume. This year, the reduction of stainless - steel social inventories has been slow, and warehouse receipts have continued to decrease. Overall, recently, the market has been mainly driven by policies and macro - sentiment, and the spot - demand drive on the fundamentals is not obvious. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market rose significantly. The results of the Jiangxi mining - right approval are still to be verified, and some Qinghai salt - lake production capacities are at risk of reduction or suspension due to over - mining, increasing the volatility at the ore end. Coupled with the overall anti - involution background, the commodity expectations are boosted, and the market sentiment is positive. As of the close on July 25, the main contract 2509 closed at 80,520 yuan/ton. The lithium - ore price has accelerated its rise, and supply remains sufficient. Last week's production data decreased slightly. Demand is relatively stable, the seasonal characteristics are less obvious, battery - cell orders are okay, and the material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expected. However, due to the off - season and the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The entire industry chain is in an inventory - accumulation state, and the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down last week. The high - level inventory of upstream smelters is being reduced, while the inventory in other downstream trading links continues to accumulate. The fundamental logic has not changed, but in the short term, the combination of macro - boosting and news - uncertainty dominates the market trend. Funds are concentrated in the market for trading, and the market atmosphere is gradually pricing in the balance adjustment after the supply reduction or suspension. The trading core has shifted to the ore end. Recently, there are many market variables, which may amplify market fluctuations. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is driven by funds, and there are many unverified news items. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and wait and see. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and supply adjustments [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 841 yuan/ton, down 35.54% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread is - 53.68 US dollars/ton, down 3.76 US dollars from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 483 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan from the previous day; the Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) is 50 US dollars/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 2508 - 2509 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory was 560,900 tons, down 23.23% from the previous week; the electrolytic - copper rod operating rate was 69.37%, down 4.85 percentage points from the previous week; the recycled - copper rod operating rate was 27.31%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic social inventory was 114,200 tons, down 20.31% from the previous week; the bonded - area inventory was 82,200 tons, up 4.31% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 73,400 tons, down 13.17% from the previous week; the LME inventory was 128,500 tons, up 2.97% from the previous day; the COMEX inventory was 247,900 short tons, up 0.96% from the previous day; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 16,100 tons, down 96.72% from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,677 yuan/ton, down 100.8 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.85, down 0.01 from the previous day [4]. - Monthly Spread: The 2508 - 2509 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 65 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, down 13.89% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 19,600 tons, down 39.69% from the previous month. The aluminum - profile operating rate was 50.50%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - cable operating rate was 61.60%, down 0.65% from the previous month; the aluminum - plate and strip operating rate was 63.20%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - foil operating rate was 69.60%, unchanged from the previous month; the primary aluminum - alloy operating rate was 54.00%, unchanged from the previous month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 510,000 tons, up 3.66% from the previous day; the LME inventory was 451,000 tons, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 spread is 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2512