广发期货《农产品》日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia's export surge and B50 blending signal boosted the market, but market focus may shift back to Malaysia. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong, with potential for the futures to rise again [1]. - Soybean oil: US biodiesel policy can't sustain the uptrend. Trade negotiations affect CBOT soybeans. Domestic demand may increase later, providing some support for basis quotes [1]. Sugar - Internationally, the bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but with an overall bearish view considering the production increase. Domestically, the market is in a marginal supply - demand relaxation, with a bearish view after a rebound and short - term high - level narrow - range oscillation expected [4]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new cotton may face pressure after listing due to increased supply pressure and weak demand [6]. Corn - Short - term market trading is light, with the futures oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the third - quarter supply is tight, while the fourth - quarter may be more balanced [7]. Pork - Spot prices are weak. Short - term pig prices are not optimistic, with spot prices at the bottom and limited upside for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month is affected by policies [10]. Meal and Grains - US soybeans are at the bottom, with potential support. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and it's recommended to wait and see [13]. Eggs - This week's egg demand may first decrease and then increase. Next week, some areas' egg prices may decline slightly, but there is still upside potential for spot prices, while futures have limited upside [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: On July 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 8144 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The basis was 236, up 21.65%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 to 21495 [1]. - Palm oil: In Guangdong, the 24 - degree spot price on July 25 was 9000 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of P2509 was 8936 yuan/ton, down 1.85%. The basis was - 168, up 218.52%. The import cost was 9289.1 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 282 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu on July 25 was 9570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of O1509 was 9457 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The basis was 113, up 44.87% [1]. Sugar - Futures market: On July 25, the price of sugar 2601 was 5706 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5876 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. - Spot market: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 5920 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4512 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [3]. - Industrial situation: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - Futures market: On July 25, the price of cotton 2509 was 14170 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the price of cotton 2601 was 14115 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.23 cents/pound, down 0.74% [6]. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15419 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15549 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [6]. - Industrial situation: Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% month - on - month [6]. Corn - Corn: On July 25, the price of corn 2509 was 2311 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the basis was 40, up 16.67%. The import profit was 430 yuan/ton, down 2.39% [7]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2509 was 2665 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 15, up 36.36% [7]. Pork - Futures: The price of the main contract was - 225, down 36.36%; the price of pork 2511 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; the price of pork 2509 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10]. - Spot: The price in Henan was 14160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Shandong was 14440 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [10]. Meal and Grains - Soybean meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2509 was 3021 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis was - 161, up 2.42% [13]. - Rapeseed meal: The price in Jiangsu was 2580 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the price of RM2509 was 2675 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The basis was - 95, up 15.18% [13]. - Soybeans: The price in Harbin was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4224 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 264, unchanged [13]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3628 yuan/500KG, down 0.22%; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3522 yuan/500KG, down 1.12% [15]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged. The breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan/feather, up 20.53% [15].