宏观周报：“赢学”与全球股市的盛宴-20250728

Group 1 - The global stock market has experienced a significant rally since April, with major indices reaching historical highs despite concerns over economic slowdown due to trade wars [3][9][10] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq have seen increases of 22.6%, 32.1%, and 43.2% respectively since their lows in April, while European and Japanese indices have also shown strong performance [9][10] - The market's optimism is attributed to the "winning theory" which has mitigated concerns over tariffs and geopolitical risks, alongside expectations of lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][11][12] Group 2 - Recent economic indicators from the US show signs of weakness, with existing home sales falling below expectations and durable goods orders declining [4][18][21] - The PMI data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI in the US dropping below the expansion threshold, while service sector PMI remains stable [21][24] - In Europe, PMI indices have shown an overall recovery, indicating improved consumer confidence and economic sentiment [24][26] Group 3 - The US-China trade relationship appears to be stabilizing, with recent agreements on tariffs and a potential extension of the tariff truce, which has positively influenced market sentiment [12][13] - The upcoming earnings reports from US tech companies are expected to shift market focus back to corporate fundamentals, particularly regarding the sustainability of profit growth amid economic fluctuations [13][14]