Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was mostly in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1500. Some 2023/24 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps machine-picked cotton (3129/29B) was quoted at 15,600 - 15,700 yuan/ton or above. The basis of machine-picked cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang (Grade 31, double 29) was mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1250, with a small amount lower than this price. The sales basis of the same quality machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang in the 2023/24 season was mainly in the range of CF09 + 900 - 1100, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, compared with 21,635 bales on the previous trading day. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (up 3.97 percentage points week-on-week, and up 3.97 percentage points last week) [9]. - According to the statistics of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of July 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan for the 2025/26 season reached 46,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, textile mills purchased 39,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 2,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [17][18][23]
建信期货棉花日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-29 01:24