建信期货工业硅日报-20250729

Date - The date of the report is July 29, 2025 [2] Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance Futures Market - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures closed at the daily limit down. The Si2509 contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, down 8%. The trading volume was 683,704 lots, and the open interest was 279,057 lots, a net decrease of 44,257 lots [4] Spot Market - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the output in the fourth week of July increased to 75,200 tons. Photovoltaic demand increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the overall self - inspection of the organic silicon industry due to safety accidents has not significantly improved the supply - demand relationship. Since the end of June, the first - stage rebound of industrial silicon's futures and spot prices was mainly affected by the news of production cuts by Xinjiang Hesheng, and the second stage was mainly due to the resonance of the "anti - involution" competition policy. The repeated hitting of the daily limit down was mainly due to the panic selling of long - position holders after the reversal of policy - stimulated sentiment. Generally speaking, the recent price fluctuations are not related to the fundamentals. The current spot price (553) range is still between 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. There is obvious panic sentiment among short - term long - position holders, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased again at high prices. After a short - term decline, the price will be supported by the spot price and subsequent policies. Overall, the price will fluctuate widely [5] Market News - On July 28, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,113 lots, a net increase of 403 lots from the previous trading day [6] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [6] - On July 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - June. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment was 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [6]