建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250729

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Futures markets for plastics and PP showed declines, with market sentiment weakening. The supply - demand pattern remained unimproved, with supply increasing and demand not keeping up. After short - term market sentiment digestion, the market is expected to face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: The plastics and PP futures contracts all closed lower. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7400 yuan/ton, down 1.12%; PP2601 closed at 7136 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The trading volume of plastic 2509 was 389,000 lots, and its open interest decreased by 20,147 to 346,401 lots. The open interest of PP decreased by 29,838 to 325,800 lots [5][6] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is on the rise as planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous units are restarted, and new projects like Ningbo Daxie Phase II are planned for production. Demand is weak, with agricultural film demand at a seasonal low, stable开工 in pipes and plastic weaving, slightly improved orders in daily chemicals and food, but longer production order days and low downstream acceptance of high - priced products, leading to inventory accumulation [6] 4.2 Industry News - Inventory: On July 28, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.96%) from the previous working day, compared with 710,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Market Prices: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. LLDPE prices in North China were 7230 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton. Shandong propylene market prices dropped 45 yuan/ton to 6170 - 6220 yuan/ton. PP market prices fell 20 - 50 yuan/ton, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7] 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][12][14]