建信期货原油日报-20250729

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, demand is weak, and oil prices lack upward momentum. They are expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to whether there are new bullish factors in the macro - environment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - Demand Analysis: From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. If demand remains low, it will drag down refinery operations and eventually lead to crude oil inventory build - up. The sustainability of high US refinery operating rates needs further observation [6] - Supply Analysis: OPEC+ is about to hold a meeting to decide on September's crude oil production. It is likely to continue the production increase of 550,000 barrels per day, thus completing the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6] 2. Industry News - OPEC+ Meeting: The OPEC+ JMMC met today to discuss crude oil policies and is expected to maintain the existing production increase plan. OPEC+ senior officials said that the JMMC has no power to decide the production policies of the eight member countries [8] - India's Crude Oil Imports: In June, India's crude oil imports decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February this year. The crude oil throughput of Indian refineries in June decreased by 4.2% month - on - month to 5.41 million barrels per day. This may be due to the seasonal decline in domestic oil demand during the monsoon season, and this trend may continue into July. However, due to the rising trend of India's oil demand, year - on - year imports should still increase [8] - US - EU Energy Deal: A senior US administrative official said that Trump suggested that the EU purchase $1 trillion of US energy during his tenure, and the EU finally decided to reach an agreement by purchasing $750 billion [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]