大越期货棉花早报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral, with various institutions having different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, seasonal expectations, and the approaching delivery month of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract [4][5]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal. The inventory situation is bearish, while the disk and the main position are bullish [6]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year. Bearish factors are the approaching 3 - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, and increased inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton situation. ICAC predicts a production of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons; USDA forecasts production of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. In June, textile and clothing exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons in the 2025/26 period [4]. - Expected Situation: The third round of Sino - US trade negotiations is ongoing. The previous rush - to - export orders have basically ended, and the market expects the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract may have an increased impetus for the convergence of the spot - futures price difference as it approaches the delivery month, with a short - term operating range of 14,000 - 14,500 [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,609, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1534, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 period in July is 823 million tons, which is a bearish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is not clear, still considered bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Fundamentals Data: The report provides data from multiple institutions on cotton production, consumption, import, and export in different periods, as well as the expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 period [4][12][13][15][17]. - Position Data: The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing [6].