大越期货油脂早报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China have led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 200, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main positions: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [3]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [5]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [5]. - Main positions: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have decreased [5]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production reduction, and the subsequent supply will increase [3][5][6]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9550, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [6]. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [6]. - Main positions: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Negative factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7].